On September 10th, DNV GL, which provides classification and technical support and consulting services for the maritime and energy industries, released the latest Energy Transformation Outlook report. The report pointed out that global energy demand will peak in 2035, and the proportion of global energy expenditure in economic output will decline rapidly.
The Energy Transformation Outlook shows that the decarbonization of the energy mix will be reflected in the investment trend. By 2050, the investment in renewable energy will be three times that of the current one, while the expenditure on fossil fuels will be reduced by about one third. Overall, energy spending will slow down significantly, and by the middle of this century the proportion of GDP will be 44% lower than it is now. Since the industrial era, economic growth and energy use have been growing at the same time, but this relationship will be disintegrated in 2035, when energy demand will begin to decline and GDP will continue to grow.
Remi Eriksen, President and CEO of DNV GL, said that capital and policy are increasingly favoring natural gas and renewable energy。 The rapid electrification of energy systems will exceed the growth rate of GDP and population。 This transformation is unstoppable。 。
However, DNV GL believes that fossil fuels will continue to play an important role in the future energy mix, but the share will drop from the current 80% to 50% in the middle of this century, and the other half will be provided by renewable energy。 By 2026, natural gas will be the single largest source of energy and will meet 25% of global energy demand by 2050。 Oil will peak in 2023 and coal has peaked。 16% of the global energy supply and 12% of the global energy supply will continue to play a leading role in renewable energy, meeting the vast majority of new electricity demand。
According to DNV GL, lower energy demand will also be reflected in investment, and its overall expenditure as a percentage of global GDP will fall from the current 5。5% to 3。1%。 As fossil fuels will have a smaller share of a smaller cake, their spending will fall by about a third, to just $2。1 trillion。 Wind and photovoltaic projects will also change the nature of spending。 Contrary to the oil and gas industry, they often require more upfront capital expenditures and less operating expenses later。
“The warming of the Earth will exceed the 2 degree temperature limit of the Paris Agreement. We don’t have the oil to deal with climate change. We must combine energy efficiency, renewable energy, carbon capture and storage (CCS) to cope with climate change. "Ai Ruimin stressed, "We must take advantage of the affordability of energy transformation and take extraordinary measures to create a sustainable future."
As part of the Energy Transformation Outlook, the 2050 Maritime Forecast provides an independent forecast of the future of maritime energy and examines how the energy transition will affect the shipping industry. “Decarbonization will be a major trend in the maritime industry in the coming decades, especially in the context of the new IMO greenhouse gas strategy.” DNV GL Maritime CEO Cohen said frankly.
source: China energy storage network